Killer Bee Balls - Page 3

brutus · 02-18-05, 02:29 PM

also, we should remember that we are dealing with nature. Probabilities and percentages are just best guesses. Nature is unpredictable.

Bristen · 02-18-05, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by brutus
also, we should remember that we are dealing with nature. Probabilities and percentages are just best guesses. Nature is unpredictable.

I don't really agree with that statement... they are not really a guess... they are calculated...

when the sample is large enough, the numbers WILL make sense and WILL fit into the calculated numbers in my opinion... if you do pastel x pastel clutches and produce 100 hatchlings you WILL have VERY close to the perfect 25% super pastels in my opinion..

just like tossing a coin.. toss it up in the air 100 times and you will be VERY close to 50 head and 50 tail... try it and let us know the numbers, you'll see...

Bristen.

Bristen · 02-18-05, 03:11 PM

hey, I was just thinking... perhaps some people should report some numbers??

Jeff, you produced a ton of pastels in 2004 did you not? How many eggs resulting from pastel x normal breedings did you get? What was the number of pastels and the number of normals? What was the number of male pastels and the number of female pastels?

Actual numbers like that would almost certainly prove that the numbers will balance out on a sample which is large enough...

Thanks,
Bristen.

CamHanna · 02-18-05, 03:43 PM

To fill 5 minutes of my time I decided to flip a nickel 100 times.

Flips 1-12 I got 8 tails : 4 heads.
Flips 1-25 I got 12 tails : 13 heads.
Flips 1-50 I got 27 tails : 23 heads.
Flips 1-100 I got 51 tails : 49 heads.

Cam

Jeff_Favelle · 02-18-05, 07:44 PM

Its funny Bristen, because we had a clutch with 8 eggs, and only ONE male pastel (the rest normal), but we had another clutch of 7 that has 1.3 Pastels and 1.2 normals. Most fell into the expected norm 6 eggs, 3-4 pastels. Averaged out in the end.

Guy in the states (Wilbanks?) had 10 eggs from Pastel x Normal and he got 10 PASTELS!! Insane eh?

Quote:

Which is another reason why I think bumblebees and killer bees are overpriced; you would get much higher returns with other projects for that same investment.

Really? Which ones? Seems to be quite a few bigger breeders buying Bumble-Bees that skipped Spiders a few years back.

Bristen · 02-18-05, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by CamHanna
To fill 5 minutes of my time I decided to flip a nickel 100 times.

Flips 1-12 I got 8 tails : 4 heads.
Flips 1-25 I got 12 tails : 13 heads.
Flips 1-50 I got 27 tails : 23 heads.
Flips 1-100 I got 51 tails : 49 heads.

Cam

for the first 12 flips, you got 66%/33%.. which does not really even out close to 50%/50%

now after 25 flips, you're at 48%/52%... this is much closer to the 50%/50% that we should be getting...

after 50 flips, we have 54%/46% which is interesting, because it actually went away from the expected 50%/50% a little bit.. still way closer than in the first 12 flips...

after 100 flips, we are almost at the perfect result.. 51%/49%!!

I think if you compare the results of the first 12 flips (66%/33%) and the 100 flips (51%/49%) it perfectly illustrates what I was trying to say.. The larger the sample, the closer you will get to the expected numbers...

Thank you so much for taking the required 5 minutes to do the experiment Cam!! Hopefully that will help everybody understand!

Bristen.

Bristen · 02-18-05, 08:55 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Jeff_Favelle Its funny Bristen, because we had a clutch with 8 eggs, and only ONE male pastel (the rest normal), but we had another clutch of 7 that has 1.3 Pastels and 1.2 normals. Most fell into the expected norm 6 eggs, 3-4 pastels. Averaged out in the end.

actually, your first two examples perfectly illustrates what I've been trying to say from the start.. the first two clutches you are talking about totals to 15 hatchlings... on 15 babies, you got 5 pastels and 10 normals.. so you ended up with 33% pastels and 66% normals.. but 15 is too small a sample size.. see Cam's coin flipping experiment.. after 12 flips, he was at the same percentages.. 33% and 66%... results per clutch doesn't really matter because results in a single clutch can vary one way or the other (more pastels or less pastels than expected).. but on 100 babies, you will be VERY close to 50% pastels and 50% normals... just like Cam's coin flipping

Quote:

Originally posted by Jeff_Favelle Guy in the states (Wilbanks?) had 10 eggs from Pastel x Normal and he got 10 PASTELS!! Insane eh? [...]

well getting 10 eggs and hatching 10 pastels is really crazy.. that's almost like winning the lottery.. it's not impossible, but close.. however, that doesn't mean if he had 100 babies he would of had more pastels.. some clutches will have produced much less than the 50% (perhaps not even any at all!)... it all even outs when you have a large sample... the odds of it NOT evening out gets smaller and smaller the bigger the sample size is.. I think I have to stop now, I really sounds like a broken record (the modern expression should be a "skipping CD" I suppose? heh)

Bristen.

Jeff_Favelle · 02-18-05, 09:28 PM

Yep. I think Mark had an 8 or 9 egg clutch without any Pastels at all. Crazy eh? And a Bumble-Bee is only a "1 in 4" snake. Meaning, there isn't about to be a flood of them like Mojaves, Lessers, etc etc. There will be some, but its harder to make them than a straight co-dom.

David Kwok · 02-19-05, 12:31 AM

Wow, what a thread this is.... hhw if you ever become a financial advisor I am in! LOL! Another thing I would like to add is that real investments do not require the investor to lift a finger.

Anyone have any momo plays they want to share?

Dave

Quote:

Originally posted by hhw
Also, from an investment standpoint, you should also take into account the opportunity cost of the dollars spent and the time value of money. Which is another reason why I think bumblebees and killer bees are overpriced; you would get much higher returns with other projects for that same investment. There are more than enough projects out there that I don't think anyone is in a position where they would have exhausted all alternatives with a significantly higher return.

Jeff_Favelle · 02-19-05, 04:03 AM

Quote:

Another thing I would like to add is that real investments do not require the investor to lift a finger.

Do "real" investments give a rate of return of 5000% within a fiscal year?

greenman1867 · 02-19-05, 04:53 AM

None that won't land you in the Big House

Jeff_Favelle · 02-19-05, 05:28 AM

LOL!

Markus Jayne · 02-19-05, 07:45 AM

Quote:

Yep. I think Mark had an 8 or 9 egg clutch without any Pastels at all. Crazy eh?

Actually I had a clutch of 11 eggs and only produced 1 pastel.

Last year I had a 50% poss het albino female lay 5 eggs and I produced 4 albinos. That made up for it!

I think everone is making a good point here and are correct based on the law of averages.

This the way I read into it. Yes each egg has a 25% chance of being Killer Bee. Therefore if you have a clutch of:

4 eggs you have a 25% chance of producing 1 KB
8 eggs = 50% to produce 1
12 eggs = 75% to produce 1
16 eggs = 100% to produce at least one Killer Bee.

Does this make any sense?

Mark

Bristen · 02-19-05, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Markus Jayne [...] 4 eggs you have a 25% chance of producing 1 KB
8 eggs = 50% to produce 1
12 eggs = 75% to produce 1
16 eggs = 100% to produce at least one Killer Bee.
Does this make any sense?

I'm not strong enough in math or statistics to tell you that those percentages are correct.. but what I can tell you, is the odds of you hitting a killer bee spider (super pastel spider - assuming breeding to be pastel x bumble bee breeding) increases with the sample size...

as you saw with your 11 egg clutch (pastel x normal) having only one pastel, you can't ever be 100% sure of what's going to happen... it was VERY unlikely that you would only get 1 pastel on 11 eggs.. normally one would of expected anything between 3 and 8 pastels, but stuff outside of those "normal expected results" happen all the time.. this being said, I do not believe that by having 16 eggs resulting from a pastel x bumble bee spider breeding would absolutely guarantee you at least one killer bee spider... however, the odds are WAY higher than if you only have 4 eggs... the trick is, get volume and you will eventually hit what your trying to accomplish.

Bristen.

Tim_Cranwill · 02-19-05, 10:26 AM

Mark, that's not the best way to look at it. By that logic...

- If you flip a coin once, you have a 50% chance of getting tails.

- If you flip a coin twice, you have a 100% chance of getting tails.

See what I mean?

Your example looks a bit better because the percentage grows a bit slower but it's the same principal. Even if you flip that coin ten times, you aren't guaranteed to get tails. Odds are you will, but it's not a guarantee.