will the co-dominants hold value?

[rwg]

Here's what I'm wondering...given that co-dominant morphs are so easy to produce, how long do you think it will be before pastels cost the same as (or maybe marginally more than) normals? I think we're going to see a flood on the market in about 3 years. My business sense (which is admittedly quite poor) tells me as far as investments go, if you're not in already, it's probably too late on a lot of these morphs. Opinions?

Roy

[hhw]

http://www.queenlizard.com/articles/KevinMcCurley.html

Well, I was expecting pastels to drop a lot in price this season but they seem to be holding their value pretty well. I don't think any morphs will ever drop to anywhere near the price of normals, as the price of normals is driven low by imports.

Now, I agree that there will eventually have to be some price drop, as pastels are still currently a breeder market animal (i.e. anybod that buys them intends to breed them). Now, assuming the breeder market doesn't grow faster than pastels become available, eventually all or most of the interested breeders will have pastels and then the main market will shift to people who wish to keep them as pets. However, these would still be high end animals and would still fetch a decent price.

In my opinion, absolute worst case scenario pastels drop to $500m/$1,000f in 10 years. Even at those price drops you should be able to recoup your initial investment without producing any supers. I don't see them dropping more than $100 or $200 in the next 3 years.

[MarcB]

Pastels will never be at par value of normals, you are however correct, they will drop in value once demand outways supply, supply is still there for pastels, breeders still have males available at $1500, I wouldn't be surprised if the lower end pastel males drop below 1K in 05.

Recessive mutations will hold value over a longer period, I would recommend investing in a recessive before Co-Doms.

[rwg]

The reason I ask, is twofold. For one thing I've seen it suggested here a number of times as well as other places that anyone getting into breeding should "get a pastel male and as many normal females as you can afford". Second, the price on normal females has gone up a bit (or seems to have), and the explanation I've heard is that it is because of people doing just that. If enough normal females are being pulled into co-dom breeding projects to drive the price up (when we all know how many wild caught and farm raised BPs are coming in every year), then I would guess there will be a lot of morphs available in a few years.

Roy

[Vengeance]

Another thing that needs to be taking into consideration is the consumer. The normal consumer will pay the cheapest price to get a ball python, and they will also end up with a WC. But for your average breeder, they don't want a troubled feeder, they want quality. So although the imports do drive the overall price down, when it comes to a quality reptile to be used in a breeding project your average breeder will be willing to pay a little bit more if they know they are getting a quality animal.

Atleast that is my take on the price of females.

[Jayson]

Although i am not a morph breeder and my knowledge of genetics is limited, my opinion is that untill breeders cross co-doms and doms with every recessive trait out there 2-3 times over all co-dominate traits are going to hold their value And because of the co-dominate trait the females will definitly hold their value.
As far as a time frame for the decrease in value i am not sure but i would say that anything less then 5 years is being extremely optunistic (sp) and even then it would not be like just everyone can afford a new pastel.

Then again there will be that chance that in 1 or 2 years Joe Blow prduces a whole pile of pastels that he cant get rid of and cant afford to keep so they just start unloading them for rediculess prices.

[Jeff_Favelle]

Will they hold their value? Well, people asked that 5 years ago, and the same people are still asking that same question now, LOL! In the meanwhile, the people that KNOW they will, made and are making boatloads of money.

SO yes, they will.

[RandyRemington]

So how much as a percentage of the original price have pastels come down in the last 5 years? Even that wouldn't probably be a very good guess as to what percentage they will drop in the next 5 years because they can't go down for ever and at some point they will reach a stabilization price at which not enough new breeders will start projects to exceed demand at that price. The price of normal hatchlings is artificially low due to the imports and not a reflection of the price people will supply the demanded quantity at. Even with big players buying 30 pastel males for 300 normal girls I doubt pastels will get below $300 any time soon and maybe not even below $500.

I think that given the likelihood that the drop in price will start to level off and that even with a quick drop like in the last 5 years you can reproduce them quickly enough to make money now looks like a good time to start a pastel project.

[rwg]

Well, the eventual price is whatever premium the end consumer is willing to pay for one that looks that much nicer than a normal. How quickly we get to that stable price is going to depend to a large extent on how quickly the supply fills the breeder and high-end herper market. With a co-dom trait, that's going to happen a LOT faster than with recessive.

Here's my guesses. I think the stable price is going to be around 300. I think they will likely hold their value pretty well next year. The year after, you'll see the breeder market slowing down, and only the best lines will get anywhere near 1k. 2-3 years from now, they'll all be down to 500-750 cdn. That's nothing to sneeze at mind you.

I think people buying pastel babies now should have a business plan that doesn't require selling babies for 1500 a pop for the next 10 years. :) Doesn't mean you wont make back your 1500 dollar investment pretty quickly, but I wouldn't retire just yet.

Roy

[smeagel]

i believe that the co-dom will hold its value. especially the pastel, just look at the potential crosses that are just waiting to be made! For example, pastel and pieds. Or pastel and reduced patern even. Granted we have seen a drop in prices for certain morphs in the past year even ( like pieds ) but the pastel will play such a big part in potential morphs that they are a very sound investment. Especially females.

[Vengeance]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it impossible to cross a Pied with an Pastel? Wouldn't you just end up with a pastel that is 100% Het for Pied?

[Corey Woods]

Vengeance,

If you crossed a pastel with a pied you'd get Pastels 100% het pied.

If you were to cross 1.1 Pastels het Pied you'd get the following:

Super Pastel Pied
Super Pastels 66% ph Pied
Pastel Pieds
Pastels 66% ph Pied
Pieds
66% ph Pied

If you were to breed a Pastel het Pied to a Pied you'd get the following:

Pastel Pied
Pastel het Pied
Pied
Het Pied

I hope this helps,
Corey

[munchy]

have pied pastels been produced yet? those would look CRRRRAZY.

[hhw]

I don't think there have been too many recessive/codominant combinations yet. I don't think albino pastels have even been produced yet. I know that NERD hatched out axanthic pastels just a little while back, and I think there are some pastel ghosts out there, but that's all I know of... granted, I don't know all that much though.

[atw]

I think that a dominant gene like the Spider would drop in cost before a co-dominant gene because co-doms can produce supers while doms cannot.

If I understand the genetics correctly --and please correct me if I am wrong--, Spiders are just as easily produced as Pastels. Because Pastels can produce Super Pastels, there exists the possibility for twice as many crosses with recessive genes… not to mention a higher price for a Super. Perhaps it is the 'super' potential of the Pastel that will keep it from dropping as quickly as a dominant morph like the Spider and, allow it to hold its price.

As well, if you think about it, a Pastel is really just a het for a Super Pastel. If Pastels eventually drop in price, perhaps that price might mirror what albino hets are currently going for; in other words, a lot more than normals and I don’t think that will be happening any time soon. Also consider that there exist ‘Lemon’ Pastels, and probably even more Pastel morphs, so even if the normal Pastel radically drops, there will be another morph to work with especially since I am not aware of any Canadian breeders producing Lemon Pastels.

Adam

[Tim_Cranwill]

VERY good points, atw!

There is at least one breeder in Canada working with Lemons right now that I know of. Hopefully we'll see some produced here in Canada this coming season. :)

To add to what you said, male pastels may drop in price in the next year or two but I think female pastels will take longer to drop in price.

[Vengeance]

Interesting stuff, I still don't have all of the genetics straight. So much to learn :D

[rwg]

Well, the difference between het for albino, and het pastel (in economic terms), is that het pastels can be sold to the general snake-keeping public as pastels. They look the part, and are good enough. Joe Pet-Owner doesn't care about het albinos. they're just normals to him. They only have value to a breeder. So the "end product" is much easier to produce for the pastel market than for the albino market.

The arguments that they will hold their value only seem to take into account demand. I cant argue against the demand. The demand for pastels and spiders (and all morphs really) should be high for quite a while. My speculation is about supply...the other factor in determining price. It just seems to me that with dominant and co-dominant traits, the supply can be ramped up much more quickly and in fewer generations. Am I wrong? If so, it could cause prices to either stabilize much faster than with recessive traits, or even to crash if everybody and their dog starts breeding pastels and spiders. Maybe it really is still early enough to invest in pastels (or spiders), but I think the window will close quicker than many think.

rg

[Tim_Cranwill]

Until 20'000 spiders, pastels and (insert other morph names here ________ ) are imported each year, they will always be worth more than normals. How much more? Who knows. I don't have time to speculate. I have to go breed my pastel male to 10 females before the floor drops out! LOL :D

[hhw]

It's true that dominant prices will drop faster than codominant prices will drop faster than recessive prices. However, this still isn't going to be for a while due to all the different combinations possible.

Pastels may no longer be in demand as pastels, but as a key ingredient for bumblebees, killerbees, pastaves, etc... not to mention super pastels, which you still almost never see for sale.

Anyway, female pastels will definitely hold their value, while males shouldn't drop very much. After all, you can breed a male to 10 normal females like Tim there, but you can only breed a female once. That investment value is bound to hold up their prices. I think if a breeder were having trouble selling all their pastel males, they should hold back a few and sell them as yearlings... there will always be people who want to jump in the market quickly by buying mature animals (I was one of them this year :P), and time is worth much more than the rats used for food.

[Vengeance]

That one thing has allways confused me, why with a Co-Dom trait such a Pastel are the females worth more money? I figured with a trait like pastel the males would be worth more money because you can breed 1 pastel to multiple normal females and end up with pastels, but you can only breed 1 pastel female to a normal male to end up with pastel babies, so why are the females still more expensive in a Co-Dom trait as Pastel, seems to me the males would be more valuable.

[hhw]

Because
a) You need a female pastel to produce a super
b) Since pastels are less expensive than other morphs, it makes more sense to use lots of female pastels and only buy one male of the more expensive morph when making combinations
c) Breeders will already have a pastel male and will need very few if any others, so they'll have plenty of males to sell. Most likely however, they will hold back the females for future breeding projects.

[atw]

Tim,

You mentioned that you are aware of one Canadian breeder that is working with Lemon Pastels.... who is that? I really like this morph.

Vengeance,

If you need clarification on genetics, check out NERD's site. I have read a few explanations and I have found theirs to be one of the best:

http://www.newenglandreptile.com/genetics_intro.html

rwg,

You said:



Well, the difference between het for albino, and het pastel (in economic terms), is that het pastels can be sold to the general snake-keeping public as pastels. They look the part, and are good enough. Joe Pet-Owner doesn't care about het albinos. they're just normals to him. They only have value to a breeder. So the "end product" is much easier to produce for the pastel market than for the albino market.

I think you are correct but I draw a different conclusion. To me, as Joe Pet-Owner, I would rather own a Pastel than a Het-Albino because ‘they look the part’ and as a result, I would pay more for a Pastel than a Het-Albino, even though they are 'easier' to produce and more common.


It just seems to me that with dominant and co-dominant traits, the supply can be ramped up much more quickly and in fewer generations. Am I wrong?


I think that you are partially wrong but my opinion is based on speculation not fact so take it for what it is. Although the supply may be ramping up quickly, so is the demand --if you accept that the morph is now becoming more of a 'pet' instead of an 'investment.' You can make more of a profit selling 10 snakes between $1000-$2500 than you could selling a couple of snakes between $3,500-$5,000. I am sure that you will not be able to find a pastel breeder that has snakes they cannot move at the current market rate. I think this will be the case for some time.

I think that the people that have the most to lose are those that are buying Spiders because of Corey’s comments, the lack of supers and as you said, 'the supply can be ramped up much more quickly and in fewer generations.' But, ultimately, the people that really have the most to lose are those that are still thinking about a pastel. It is not too late and even if it is, so what? You just ended up with a beautiful animal... now doesn't that suck :-P

Adam

[Tim_Cranwill]

Adam, David Kwok has one. I think it's a female.

www.davidkwok.ca

[atw]

Thanks... I will keep that in mind.